74%
Processing is the main bottleneck.
In 2025 China produced about 74% of the world’s lithium chemicals, 94% of battery-grade graphite and 85% of refined rare earths.
Source: IEA 2026; USGS 2026
Findings
At a glance
18of 35
For 18 materials, net imports meet 90% or more of EU demand.
That is more than half of the 35 materials in the Atlas.
Source: European Commission, 2023 study
99%
Other countries dominate some materials.
Turkey supplied 99% of EU borates. Kazakhstan and Russia together supplied 70% of EU titanium metal.
Source: European Commission, 2023 study
China requires export licences for 16 materials.
Gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, indium and seven rare earths.
Source: MOFCOM, export control announcements, 2023 to 2025
66kg
A 75 kWh car battery holds about 66 kg of graphite.
It also holds about 40 kg of nickel and 9 kg of lithium.
Source: IEA, The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions (2021)
24%in processing
The EU is behind on all three capacity benchmarks for 2030.
EU capacity could meet about 8% of EU consumption through extraction, 24% through processing and 12% through recycling. The benchmarks are 10%, 40% and 25%.
Source: European Court of Auditors, Special report 04/2026 (data for 2016 to 2020)
106
The EU has selected 106 Strategic Projects.
It has also signed 17 strategic partnerships on raw materials.
Source: European Commission, selections of March 2025, June 2025 and October 2026; summed by Hercinia
Stockpiles are still missing.
No EU stockpile has been confirmed as operating, and Germany holds no state stockpile.
Source: German federal government, Bundestag printed paper 21/7684, 21 August 2026
EU capacity against the 2030 benchmarks
Source: European Court of Auditors, Special report 04/2026, Critical raw materials for the energy transition; benchmarks: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252
To close the gap, the EU has selected 106 Strategic Projects and signed 17 strategic partnerships on raw materials.
Source: European Commission, selections of March 2025, June 2025 and October 2026; summed by Hercinia
Electric car with a 75 kWh NMC battery
Source: IEA, The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions (2021)
Lithium-ion batteries
€28.5bn
Value of EU imports in 2025; 90% came from China.
Source: Eurostat Comext, extra-EU imports 2025
- 9 Oct 2026
- European Union
46 new Strategic Projects from the second call, 106 in total.
Source: European Commission, selections of March 2025, June 2025 and October 2026; summed by Hercinia
- 9 Oct 2026
- European Union and China
China will keep fast-tracking export licences for rare earths and permanent magnets supplied to the EU.
Source: European Commission, STATEMENT/26/2122
- 7 Jul 2026
- NATO
Twelve allies, Luxembourg among them, launch a joint project to buy, store, transport and manage critical raw materials for defence.
Source: NATO, 7 July 2026
- Feb 2026
- Zimbabwe
Suspends exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrate. Since April, shipments have resumed only under quotas.
Source: Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines and Mining Development, reported by Reuters
- Oct 2025
- China
Export controls on five more rare earths, battery materials and foreign products with Chinese rare earth content. Suspended in November 2025 until 10 November 2026.
Source: MOFCOM, Announcements No. 57, 58, 61 and 70 of 2025
- Apr 2025
- China
Licences for seven rare earths and magnets. China later began issuing general licences to some exporters.
Source: MOFCOM, Announcement No. 18 of 2025; USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026
- Aug 2023
- European Union
Battery Regulation in force: minimum shares of recycled cobalt, lithium and nickel from 2031.
Source: EUR-Lex, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542
Imported entirely
13of 35
materials with an EU import reliance of 100%
Median
94%
import reliance across all 35 materials
No net imports
2
materials: hafnium and strontium
Source: European Commission, Study on the critical raw materials for the EU (2023), averages for 2016 to 2020
- Imported (net)
- Not imported (net)
Antimony
100% import reliance
Beryllium
100% import reliance
100% import reliance
Heavy rare earths
100% import reliance
Light rare earths
100% import reliance
100% import reliance
100% import reliance
Niobium
100% import reliance
Phosphorus
100% import reliance
Platinum group metals
100% import reliance
Scandium
100% import reliance
100% import reliance
100% import reliance
99% import reliance
Tantalum
99% import reliance
Gallium
98% import reliance
Manganese
96% import reliance
Helium
94% import reliance
Aluminium and bauxite
89% import reliance
82% import reliance
Cobalt
81% import reliance
80% import reliance
75% import reliance
Baryte
74% import reliance
Bismuth
71% import reliance
Coking coal
66% import reliance
Silicon metal
64% import reliance
Fluorspar
60% import reliance
Feldspar
54% import reliance
48% import reliance
Germanium
42% import reliance
Arsenic
39% import reliance
33% import reliance
Hafnium
0% import reliance
Strontium
0% import reliance
- Antimony100%
- Beryllium100%
- Boron 100%
- Heavy rare earths100%
- Light rare earths100%
- Lithium 100%
- Magnesium 100%
- Niobium100%
- Phosphorus100%
- Platinum group metals100%
- Scandium100%
- Titanium metal 100%
- Vanadium 100%
- Natural graphite 99%
- Tantalum99%
- Gallium98%
- Manganese96%
- Helium94%
- Aluminium and bauxite89%
- Phosphate rock 82%
- Cobalt81%
- Tungsten 80%
- Nickel 75%
- Baryte74%
- Bismuth71%
- Coking coal66%
- Silicon metal64%
- Fluorspar60%
- Feldspar54%
- Copper 48%
- Germanium42%
- Arsenic39%
- Potash 33%
- Hafnium0%
- Strontium0%
Source: European Commission, Study on the critical raw materials for the EU (2023), averages for 2016 to 2020
Dates
Dates to watch
2026
4 Nov
First talks between Parliament and the Council on amending the Critical Raw Materials Act, including a proposed Critical Raw Materials Centre.
2026
10 Nov
China’s notice suspending its October 2025 export controls runs to this date.
2026
27 Nov
China’s suspension of its ban on gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard materials exports to the US ends unless extended.
2026
Dec
The Commission plans to open a third call for Strategic Projects.
2026
9 Dec
From this date, black mass and most lithium-ion battery waste count as hazardous waste in the EU.
2027
1 Jan
Zimbabwe’s ban on lithium concentrate exports takes effect.
2027
10 Jan
The China-US Kuala Lumpur arrangement, extended on 28 September, runs to this date.
Sources: Council of the EU, document ST 15112/26, 28 October 2026; Delegated Decision (EU) 2025/934; MOFCOM, Announcements No. 70 and 72 of 2025 and statement of 28 September 2026; European Commission, IP/26/2113; Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines and Mining Development, reported by Reuters
About the data
Method and sources
The Atlas covers the 34 critical raw materials listed in Annex II of Regulation (EU) 2024/1252, plus potash. EU import reliance comes from the Commission’s 2023 study; world shares from the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 and the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026. Where sources disagree, the Atlas shows the figure from the source named beside it.
All sources- Data as of
- 27 October 2026
- Report a correction
- info@hercinia.eu
